Margins of Power: Cost-of-Living and the Battle for Australia’s Federal Majority

As the Australian federal election nears, both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton are intensely focused on key battlegrounds and economic pressures to secure electoral victory. Western Australia (WA) is central to this effort. Labor’s four-seat gain in WA during the 2022 election underpins its current three-seat majority, prompting Albanese to visit the state nearly 30 times since taking office. His campaign stresses Labor’s support for WA’s iron ore and gas sectors, reinforcing Labor’s alignment with the resource-rich state’s economic interests.

Cost-of-living relief has become a campaign priority. Albanese has proposed supermarket pricing regulations inspired by European models, aiming to curb price gouging through significant penalties. Yet critics note the proposal lacks detail and legislative clarity. Dutton, meanwhile, has launched a National Gas Plan, seeking to reserve 20% of east coast gas production for domestic use to lower prices from $14 to $10 per gigajoule. While the plan has won praise from industry players like BlueScope Steel, others warn it could deter investment, disrupt exports, and prove logistically complex due to Australia’s infrastructure constraints.

In Western Sydney, another key electoral battleground, Dutton has pledged to cut fuel excise by 20 cents per liter to alleviate commuter costs—a direct appeal to voters hit hardest by inflation. These areas, with large mortgage and multicultural populations, are viewed as pivotal for both parties’ fortunes.

Recent polls reflect a tightening race. A Newspoll shows Labor leading 51% to 49% on a two-party-preferred basis, with Labor’s primary vote up to 33% and the Coalition’s down to 37%. YouGov’s MRP model places Labor ahead in 10 previously trailing seats, suggesting they are within reach of a majority. However, a high proportion of undecided voters keeps the race volatile.

The possibility of a hung parliament remains strong. Crossbenchers and independents may play a decisive role, prompting both major parties to court their support. The alignment of these independents—many representing electorates with mixed ideological leanings—could critically shape post-election governance.

As polling narrows and economic promises escalate, the election outcome will depend on each party’s ability to retain key regional support, articulate credible cost-of-living solutions, and negotiate with a fragmented electorate whose final decisions remain uncertain.