The War Has Already Begun: The Reckoning of NATO in the Face of Russian Escalation

General Carsten Breuer, Chief of the German Bundeswehr, has issued a stark warning: from Russia’s perspective, war with NATO is no longer a future risk but a reality already unfolding. In his view, this conflict is not defined by open battle but by hybrid operations—cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation, and intelligence incursions—already targeting NATO states.

This assessment, supported by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), forecasts Russia’s readiness for full-scale conventional warfare against the West by the end of this decade, with a potential attack possible within just a few years. Russia has doubled its troop count, expanded weapons production, and shifted military infrastructure westward. Its doctrine treats war as a continuum, blending peacetime and combat into a seamless campaign.

Breuer notes that massive arms stockpiles are being built not just for Ukraine but for long-term use. Russian drones have flown over German training grounds for Ukrainian troops, and incidents of sabotage and espionage are rising. Even if the war in Ukraine ends, Breuer believes Russia will continue its broader confrontation with the West. Moscow’s objectives go beyond Donbas or Crimea—they aim at strategic dominance over Europe.

Political scientist Carlo Masala echoes Breuer’s analysis. He argues that Europe has no more than four years to close the gap in defense readiness. While Macron suggests a ten-year timeline to reach European defense sovereignty, Masala insists this is dangerously slow. Both agree that Russia is preparing not for negotiation, but for confrontation on a historic scale.

Germany has begun to modernize its military, with initiatives like 3D-printed drones signaling a pivot toward innovation. Yet concerns remain. The Kiel Institute warns that rearmament is proceeding too slowly, citing bureaucratic delays, poor procurement practices, and ammunition shortfalls. “Operation Deutschland,” Germany’s plan for mobilizing up to 800,000 NATO troops through its territory, illustrates the seriousness—but also the complexity—of preparing for war.

At the alliance level, NATO’s strategic posture is under urgent review. Capability targets are being redefined, and member states are under pressure to meet the 2% GDP defense threshold. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has urged unity, especially as questions about U.S. commitment under a possible second Trump presidency cast shadows on transatlantic reliability.

Breuer insists that the conceptual framework of war must be updated. The idea that NATO is secure until formally attacked is obsolete. The instruments of war—cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage—are already deployed. The war is not looming; it is underway.

To counter it, NATO must transition from symbolic deterrence to real capability. Europe must rearm, integrate logistics and command structures, and build societal resilience. Germany, as the EU’s economic powerhouse, must lead. The “peace dividend” era is over. What lies ahead is a period of continuous mobilization and strategic vigilance.

The fate of European security hinges not just on recognizing the war already underway but on responding with speed, unity, and resolve. Russia is not improvising—it is preparing. The West must do the same. The future of the Euro-Atlantic order depends on it.