Goldman Sachs commodity analysts have conducted a detailed review of over 1,000 social media posts authored by U.S. President Donald Trump across a sixteen-year span, encompassing both Twitter and Truth Social platforms. Their aim was to trace recurring thematic patterns in Trump’s public communications specifically concerning the energy sector, with a focus on his rhetorical engagement with oil price fluctuations. This effort shows not only the enduring significance of Trump’s online persona as a market-moving force, but also reveals a coherent—if informal—economic philosophy regarding energy markets embedded in his populist and nationalist rhetoric.
The analysts’ central finding is that President Trump exhibits a pronounced inclination toward West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices stabilizing within a $40 to $50 per barrel range. This conclusion was drawn from identifying a statistically significant frequency of Trump’s references to oil prices when they converge within this range, suggesting a perceived optimal equilibrium point from the perspective of both political expediency and economic sustainability. The analysts note that Trump’s frequency of posting about oil “bottoms” when WTI hovers in this range, implying that he considers this level as a baseline of comfort where consumer pricing, inflationary control, and domestic production incentives are most effectively balanced.
In their findings, Goldman Sachs details that energy market-related posts accounted for just over 1% of Trump’s total online output, yet these references number nearly 900 since his initial presence on Twitter in 2009. This suggests that, while not a dominant theme, energy discourse plays a consistent and ideologically charged role in Trump’s communication strategy. The messaging reflects the dual imperative that has defined his energy policy platform: the promise of lower consumer energy costs as a political selling point, and the imperative of preserving and expanding U.S. fossil fuel production capacity in alignment with the doctrine of energy independence and national dominance.
Trump’s communication strategy on oil reveals a bifurcated logic. On one hand, he celebrates falling oil prices—particularly when WTI exceeds $50 per barrel—as an anti-inflationary boon for American consumers, often tying such messaging to critiques of global oil cartels or regulatory policies imposed by previous administrations. On the other hand, when WTI dips below $30 per barrel, Trump has historically advocated for higher oil prices, explicitly to support domestic production, indicating a protective stance toward the financial viability of U.S. shale oil producers. Goldman Sachs notes that U.S. shale breakeven prices average around $51 per barrel, suggesting that any significant decline below this threshold risks undermining Trump’s broader goal of national energy supremacy through robust fossil fuel output.
According to Goldman Sachs, this rhetorical positioning indicates that Trump seeks a delicate balancing act: oil prices must be low enough to sustain economic growth and maintain consumer affordability, but not so low as to jeopardize the competitiveness of American producers. This nuanced stance contributes to the analysts’ forecast that, under Trump’s ongoing influence and policy orientation, oil prices are likely to moderate over the medium term. Their forward guidance projects WTI to average $56 per barrel through the remainder of 2025, followed by a decline to $52 in 2026. This projection is buttressed by macroeconomic indicators, including global recessionary pressures—exacerbated by Trump’s aggressive trade posture toward China—and by OPEC’s strategies aimed at increasing output capacity.
The broader economic implications of this rhetorical and policy trajectory are significant. Goldman Sachs observes that while Trump’s immediate influence on global oil supply is limited, especially in the short term, his deregulatory agenda and energy-friendly rhetoric are likely to have a compounding effect over time. U.S. policy shifts encouraging fossil fuel exploration, streamlined permitting, and drilling expansion will only materialize in tangible supply increases over a longer horizon. In the interim, the perception of Trump’s preferences contributes to market sentiment, reinforcing bearish tendencies in oil price forecasting.
Despite a recent 9% increase in WTI over the past week—driven in part by optimism surrounding the latest U.S.-China trade agreement—the broader trend in 2025 remains downward, with WTI still approximately 12% below its year-to-date peak. Trump’s social media activity has thus become a non-trivial vector in the formation of market expectations, offering analysts an additional tool for interpreting shifts in investor sentiment and policy direction. The White House, contacted by Business Insider for comment regarding the report’s conclusions, did not respond before publication. Nonetheless, the findings attest to the growing intersection of political communication, digital populism, and commodity markets in the era of post-institutional leadership, where policy signals are no longer issued exclusively through official channels but are often embedded in the vernacular of online performativity.
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